Document Library
Please note, some documents are restricted. For restricted documents, users must be registered and logged in to download. Contact science coordinator to become registered.
Library Home Search Document Library Upload Document
Category: Climate Change
Page: 1 of 1
Number of Subcategories: 2
Subcategories:
Meeting Notes Files: 0
Climate Adaptation - Monitoring Framework Files: 1
Files:
Sea-level rise and tidal marsh restoration in San Francisco

Download 
Download

 

Climate change impacts for coastal ecosystems include; projected changes in mean and extreme ambient temperatures, precipitation patterns, ocean temperature and acidity, extreme storm events and sea-level rise (Cayan et al. 2005; Hansen et al. 2006; IPCC 2007). Recent sea-level rise (SLR) projections range from 0.57 to 1.1 m (Jevrejeva et al. 2012) or 0.75 to 1.9 m by Grinsted et al. (2010) and Vermeer and Rahmstorf (2009) by 2100, which are contingent upon the ambient temperature conditions. The expected accelerated rate of SLR through the 21st century will put many tidal salt marsh ecosystems at risk, especially those in topographically low-gradient areas (Takekawa et al. 2006). Perhaps equally important, but poorly understood are the impacts from increased storm frequency and intensity. Increased sea levels (Nicholls and Cazenave 2010) with increased storm frequency and/or intensity (Cayan et al. 2008) may pose the greatest threat to the near-term sustainability of tidal marsh wildlife. San Francisco Bay (SFB) estuary supports a large proportion of the remnant tidal marshes on the Pacific coast of North America (Greenberg et al. 2006). Within this urbanized estuary (Nichols et al. 1986), the marshes are recognized as highly-threatened habitats with restoration efforts ongoing. More than 80% of the historical marshes have been lost in SFB since the mid-1800s (Goals Project 1999), but in the past three decades extensive efforts have been made to restore or rehabilitate areas. However, the benefit of these restoration efforts over the long-term may be reduced if marsh accretion is unable to keep pace with local SLR. Here, using the Structured Decision Making process a team of participants from public agencies in the SFB estuary who preserve, manage, or restore tidal marshes defined and worked through an initial question Climate change and tidal marsh restoration in SFB: should we restore more marshes to full tidal action and how should they be prioritized?and developed a first decision prototype. In all iterations of the model, the Status Quoand Do Nothingstrategies produced the lowest utility values. The alternative Climate Restorationprovided the largest utility value, followed closely by the Marsh Migrationalternative strategy, and Status Quohad the lowest utility value.




Date
File size
Hits
Date 01/11/2013
Filesize 1.38 MB
Download 36
potential interaction between SLR and global warming...

Download 
Download

Abstract
A portion of the southeastern United States is currently experiencing the most severe drought on record. Rainfall deficits accumulated since 1998 have led to a twofold increase in mean annual salinity in the study area, a wetland landbridge located in
the Lake Pontchartrain Estuary in southeastern Louisiana. Global circulation models have predicted a rise in both the frequency and amplitude of extreme weather if global warming continues. This indicates a threat to the stability of deltaic plains,
particularly those with altered hydrologies. Throughout the Mississippi River Deltaic Plain, river control structures have eliminated freshwater inputs. Generally, this should lead to increases in salinity that can become particularly acute during
drought events. Such conditions have been shown to play a decisive role in plant community ecology, an important force in deltaic plain stability. Beyond certain thresholds, these conditions can have detrimental effects upon primary production. The
accumulation of primary production deficits may lead to increases in the rate of relative sea-level rise. Though the drought is not proven to be the result of global warming, this event shows that coastal ecology is sensitive to drought conditions and any
increase will be detrimental to floodplain stability. D 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.




Date
File size
Hits
Date 10/04/2012
Filesize 256.17 KB
Download 192