San Francisco Bay Joint Venture Science Network ![]()









| Category: Climate Change | Page: 1 of 1 | |
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Climate change impacts for coastal ecosystems include; projected changes in mean and extreme ambient temperatures, precipitation patterns, ocean temperature and acidity, extreme storm events and sea-level rise (Cayan et al. 2005; Hansen et al. 2006; IPCC 2007). Recent sea-level rise (SLR) projections range from 0.57 to 1.1 m (Jevrejeva et al. 2012) or 0.75 to 1.9 m by Grinsted et al. (2010) and Vermeer and Rahmstorf (2009) by 2100, which are contingent upon the ambient temperature conditions. The expected accelerated rate of SLR through the 21st century will put many tidal salt marsh ecosystems at risk, especially those in topographically low-gradient areas (Takekawa et al. 2006). Perhaps equally important, but poorly understood are the impacts from increased storm frequency and intensity. Increased sea levels (Nicholls and Cazenave 2010) with increased storm frequency and/or intensity (Cayan et al. 2008) may pose the greatest threat to the near-term sustainability of tidal marsh wildlife. San Francisco Bay (SFB) estuary supports a large proportion of the remnant tidal marshes on the Pacific coast of North America (Greenberg et al. 2006). Within this urbanized estuary (Nichols et al. 1986), the marshes are recognized as highly-threatened habitats with restoration efforts ongoing. More than 80% of the historical marshes have been lost in SFB since the mid-1800s (Goals Project 1999), but in the past three decades extensive efforts have been made to restore or rehabilitate areas. However, the benefit of these restoration efforts over the long-term may be reduced if marsh accretion is unable to keep pace with local SLR. Here, using the Structured Decision Making process a team of participants from public agencies in the SFB estuary who preserve, manage, or restore tidal marshes defined and worked through an initial question “Climate change and tidal marsh restoration in SFB: should we restore more marshes to full tidal action and how should they be prioritized?” and developed a first decision prototype. In all iterations of the model, the “Status Quo” and “Do Nothing” strategies produced the lowest utility values. The alternative “Climate Restoration” provided the largest utility value, followed closely by the “Marsh Migration” alternative strategy, and “Status Quo” had the lowest utility value. |
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